Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Chicago Bears 13

(7:34) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CHI 11, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-M.Mariani pushed ob at CHI 17 for 6 yards (30-K.Gaskins).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model