Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 73

Chicago Bears 13 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(5:17) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to SF 30, Center-48-P.Scales. 10-B.Ellington to SF 29 for -1 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.33 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model