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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to CHI 7, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 19 for 12 yards (35-E.Reid).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model