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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
SD Home

San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 16:05 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DEN
44.7%
SD
55.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC defense: +0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.125 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21
–
SD 23
Projected margin: SD by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DEN

Peyton Manning QB Out Foot
T.J. Ward S Out Ankle
Sylvester Williams DT Out Ankle
DeMarcus Ware LB Out Back
Bennie Fowler WR Questionable Ankle
Louis Vasquez G Questionable Groin
Owen Daniels TE Probable Knee
Lorenzo Doss CB Probable Illness
Virgil Green TE Probable Finger
Ryan Harris T Probable Knee
Ronnie Hillman RB Probable Tooth
Cody Latimer WR Probable Not Injury Related
Evan Mathis G Probable Ankle
Corey Nelson LB Probable Not Injury Related
Brock Osweiler QB Probable Quadricep
Matt Paradis C Probable Ankle
Emmanuel Sanders WR Probable Ankle
Michael Schofield T Probable Finger
Vance Walker DE Probable Shoulder

SD

King Dunlap T Out Ankle
D.J. Fluker G Out Concussion
Sean Lissemore DT Questionable Shoulder
Corey Liuget DT Questionable Foot
Jeremiah Attaochu LB Questionable Chest
Ladarius Green TE Probable Ankle
Chris Hairston T Probable Abdomen
Philip Rivers QB Probable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 17
–
SD 3

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:19 TD DEN (11:19) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 88-D.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – SD 0
  • Q1 00:12 TD DEN (:12) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 85-A.Gates INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Trevathan [97-M.Jackson] at LAC 25. 59-D.Trevathan for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – SD 0
  • Q2 05:29 FG DEN (5:29) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. DEN 17 – SD 0
  • Q2 01:45 FG LAC (1:45) 2-J.Lambo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. DEN 17 – SD 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:29) 5-M.Scifres punts 41 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:27) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to LAC 45, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-J.Herndon to LAC 49 for 4 yards (36-K.Webster).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 16 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 75%

    (3:11) 2-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.70 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 21%

    (2:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:54) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 50 yards to DEN 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 31-O.Bolden pushed ob at DEN 49 for 21 yards (97-J.Attaochu).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (5:29) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 68%

    (1:45) 2-J.Lambo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 66%

    (9:22) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 21%

    (:51) 5-M.Scifres punts 51 yards to DEN 2, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-25-D.Stuckey.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 31%

    (9:12) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to LAC 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-12-A.Caldwell.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 16 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:52) 5-M.Scifres punts 50 yards to DEN 45, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 51%

    (4:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 89-L.Green [58-V.Miller]. DEN-30-D.Bruton was injured during the play.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 37 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 59%

    (1:09) 4-B.Colquitt punts 12 yards to LAC 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 29 for -5 yards (56-S.Ray).