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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 34

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.93 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model