Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 95

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 17

(6:52) 5-M.Scifres punts 50 yards to DEN 45, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -3.74 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.97 EP
71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 95, worth -5.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model