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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 40

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.10 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP