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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 29 for -5 yards (56-S.Ray).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.42 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -1.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model