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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(2:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 89-L.Green [58-V.Miller]. DEN-30-D.Bruton was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.66 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model