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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 53

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 9, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.23 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.23 EP
KICK -2.08 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.70 EP