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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
Sunday 2015-12-06 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CIN
64.5%
CLE
35.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Austin Davis (CLE) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
  • QB edge to CIN: Austin Davis (CLE) +0.200 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.264 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Austin Davis in place of Josh McCown)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 24
–
CLE 19
Projected margin: CIN by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CIN

Tyler Eifert TE Doubtful Neck
Chris Lewis-Harris CB Doubtful Ribs
George Iloka S Questionable Groin
Leon Hall CB Questionable Back
Adam Jones CB Questionable Foot
Andre Smith T Probable Not Injury Related
Vontaze Burfict LB Probable Knee
Emmanuel Lamur LB Probable Ankle
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Probable Ankle

CLE

Taylor Gabriel WR Out Concussion
Justin Gilbert CB Out Concussion
Joe Haden CB Out Concussion
Andrew Hawkins WR Out Concussion
Joel Bitonio G Questionable Ankle
Nate Orchard LB Questionable Groin
Randy Starks DE Questionable Knee
Armonty Bryant DE Probable Elbow
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 37
–
CLE 3

Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:48 TD CIN (3:48) 14-A.Dalton up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 13:45 TD CIN (13:45) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – CLE 0
  • Q2 06:28 FG CIN (6:28) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 17 – CLE 0
  • Q2 03:24 FG CIN (3:24) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 20 – CLE 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG CLE (:03) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CIN 20 – CLE 3
  • Q3 07:55 TD CIN (7:55) 32-J.Hill left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-58-C.Kirksey, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CIN 26 – CLE 3
  • Q3 00:46 TD CIN (:46) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 82-M.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 33 – CLE 3
  • Q4 05:49 FG CIN (5:49) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 37 – CLE 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (11:37) 10-K.Huber punts 27 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-81-T.Kroft.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 34%

    (8:34) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 40 yards to CIN 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-B.Tate to CIN 16 for 12 yards (53-C.Robertson).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (5:11) 14-A.Dalton up the middle to CLE 5 for 2 yards (71-D.Shelton).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 56%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-A.Davis sacked at CIN 46 for -10 yards (90-M.Johnson).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 44%

    (10:13) 7-A.Davis pass incomplete short right to 82-G.Barnidge (36-S.Williams).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 79%

    (6:28) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%

    (3:24) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 14 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 73%

    (11:15) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-C.Dunlap), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 18 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:44) 8-A.Lee punts 45 yards to CIN 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-B.Tate to CIN 38 for 6 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 81%

    (9:24) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to CLE 21 for 4 yards (31-D.Whitner).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (5:49) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:33) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 34 yards to CIN 42, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 73%

    (1:12) 5-A.McCarron pass incomplete short right to 19-B.Tate.