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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:34) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 40 yards to CIN 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-B.Tate to CIN 16 for 12 yards (53-C.Robertson).

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.11 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model