4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 26

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:28) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.90 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model