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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 7

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 14-A.Dalton up the middle to CLE 5 for 2 yards (71-D.Shelton).

The Three Options

GO +3.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.51 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 7, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model