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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 2

Cincinnati Bengals 34 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(5:49) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +3.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.28 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 2, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP