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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(11:15) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-C.Dunlap), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.11 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model