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New Orleans Saints

4-6 HC Sean Payton
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Washington Commanders

4-5 HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2015-11-15 · 13:00 ET FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

NO
51.4%
WAS
48.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.024 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.146 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NO 25 18–32
–
WAS 24 17–31
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

NO

Dannell Ellerbe LB Out Hip
David Hawthorne LB Out Hamstring
Ramon Humber LB Out Hamstring
Damian Swann CB Out Concussion
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Marques Colston WR Probable Not Injury Related
Jahri Evans G Probable Not Injury Related
Kevin Williams DT Probable Not Injury Related
Brian Dixon CB Probable Hip
Hau'oli Kikaha LB Probable Ankle
Tim Lelito G Probable Shoulder
Keenan Lewis CB Probable Illness
Willie Snead WR Probable Knee

WAS

Terrance Knighton DT Questionable Migraine
DeAngelo Hall CB Questionable Toe
Andre Roberts WR Questionable Ankle
Keenan Robinson LB Questionable Shoulder
Bashaud Breeland CB Probable Hamstring
Jason Hatcher DE Probable Knee
Ryan Kerrigan LB Probable Hand
Josh LeRibeus C Probable Elbow
Chris Thompson RB Probable Back
Chris Culliver CB Probable Knee
Dashon Goldson S Probable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 14
–
WAS 47

Prediction missed by 34 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:32 TD WAS (8:32) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 86-J.Reed for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 05:56 TD NO (5:56) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-B.Cooks for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – WAS 7
  • Q1 01:02 TD WAS (1:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – WAS 13
  • Q2 10:52 TD NO (10:52) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 10-B.Cooks for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – WAS 14
  • Q2 10:08 TD WAS (10:08) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 31-M.Jones for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – WAS 20
  • Q2 03:23 FG WAS (3:23) 3-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. NO 14 – WAS 24
  • Q2 00:04 FG WAS (:04) 3-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. NO 14 – WAS 27
  • Q3 04:43 FG WAS (4:43) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. NO 14 – WAS 30
  • Q3 00:15 TD WAS (:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 86-J.Reed for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-S.Anthony]. NO 14 – WAS 36
  • Q4 14:28 TD WAS (14:28) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left intended for 12-M.Colston INTERCEPTED by 38-D.Goldson at NO 35. 38-D.Goldson for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 14 – WAS 43
  • Q4 09:38 FG WAS (9:38) 3-D.Hopkins 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. NO 14 – WAS 47

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 NO 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to WAS 36, Center-47-J.Drescher. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 36. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 37 for 1 yard (20-B.Dixon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (12:14) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to NO 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to WAS 17, Center-47-J.Drescher. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 36 for 19 yards (6-T.Morstead). PENALTY on WAS-34-T.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 26.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 13 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (3:23) 3-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:53) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to WAS 26, Center-47-J.Drescher. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 31 for 5 yards (33-J.Sanford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 72%

    (8:59) 28-C.Spiller right guard to WAS 31 for no gain (92-C.Baker; 64-K.Golston).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 87%

    (4:43) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:31) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to WAS 45, Center-47-J.Drescher. 80-J.Crowder to NO 44 for 11 yards (89-J.Hill).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 78
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short middle to 22-M.Ingram (51-W.Compton).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (9:38) 3-D.Hopkins 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:48) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to NO 33, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 23-M.Murphy to NO 43 for 10 yards (22-D.Everett).

    See the full breakdown →