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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 89

Washington Commanders 47 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to NO 33, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 23-M.Murphy to NO 43 for 10 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.43 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 89, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model