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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 48

Washington Commanders 14 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to NO 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model