4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 4

Washington Commanders 44 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 3-D.Hopkins 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 4, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP