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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 86

New Orleans Saints 7 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(14:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to WAS 36, Center-47-J.Drescher. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 36. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 37 for 1 yard (20-B.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 44, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model