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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 17

Washington Commanders 21 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 3-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 17, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model