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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 80

New Orleans Saints 14 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to WAS 26, Center-47-J.Drescher. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 31 for 5 yards (33-J.Sanford).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.27 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model