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Minnesota Vikings

7-2 HC Mike Zimmer
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Oakland Raiders

4-5 HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2015-11-15 · 16:05 ET O.co Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIN
36.5%
OAK
63.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.185 vs Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) -0.015 EPA/dropback
  • LV defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Wind 31 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21 14–28
–
OAK 24 17–31
Projected margin: OAK by 3 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIN

Justin Trattou DE Out Foot
Eric Kendricks LB Doubtful Ribs
Teddy Bridgewater QB Questionable Concussion
Anthony Barr LB Questionable Hand
Marcus Sherels CB Questionable Shoulder
Sharrif Floyd DT Probable Knee
Linval Joseph DT Probable Foot
Terence Newman CB Probable Concussion
Cordarrelle Patterson WR Probable Shoulder
Brian Robison DE Probable Ankle

OAK

Neiron Ball LB Out Knee
Rodney Hudson C Doubtful Ankle
T.J. Carrie CB Probable Hip
Amari Cooper WR Probable Quadricep
Latavius Murray RB Probable Concussion
Clive Walford TE Probable Quadricep
Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 30
–
OAK 14

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:06 TD MIN (11:06) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 85-R.Ellison for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – OAK 0
  • Q1 01:36 FG MIN (1:36) 3-B.Walsh 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 10 – OAK 0
  • Q2 10:36 FG MIN (10:36) 3-B.Walsh 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 13 – OAK 0
  • Q2 05:59 TD LV (5:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 88-C.Walford for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-24-C.Munnerlyn, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. MIN 13 – OAK 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD LV (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 18-A.Holmes for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [22-H.Smith]. MIN 13 – OAK 13
  • Q2 01:52 TD MIN 11-S.Janikowski kicks 58 yards from LV 35 to MIN 7. 84-C.Patterson for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 19 – OAK 14
  • Q4 03:54 FG MIN (3:54) 3-B.Walsh 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 23 – OAK 14
  • Q4 02:03 TD MIN (2:03) 28-A.Peterson right guard for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 29 – OAK 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:27) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to MIN 40, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 15 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 30%

    (5:21) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (1:36) 3-B.Walsh 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (15:00) 7-M.King punts 28 yards to MIN 32, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%

    (10:36) 3-B.Walsh 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:58) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to MIN 33, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV. PENALTY on LV-22-T.Jones, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 33.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 10%

    (10:15) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to MIN 3, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-54-K.Toomer. Minnesota challenged the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 10:03.)

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:31) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to LV 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 38-T.Carrie to LV 27 for 2 yards (35-M.Sherels).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 9%

    (1:08) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to MIN 10, Center-59-J.Condo. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 19 for 9 yards (22-T.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 82%

    (10:57) 3-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is BLOCKED (39-K.McGill), Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:42) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to MIN 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 21 for 6 yards (57-R.Armstrong).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (3:54) 3-B.Walsh 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →