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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 7-M.King punts 28 yards to MIN 32, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.03 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model