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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 20

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 3-B.Walsh 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model