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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to MIN 40, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model