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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to MIN 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 21 for 6 yards (57-R.Armstrong).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.06 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model