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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to MIN 3, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-54-K.Toomer. Minnesota challenged the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 10:03.)

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.09 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.96 EP
  • 10% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 90% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model