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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to LV 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 38-T.Carrie to LV 27 for 2 yards (35-M.Sherels).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.32 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 35, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP