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Tennessee Titans

HC Ken Whisenhunt
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2015-11-08 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

TEN
36.1%
NO
63.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.126 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.115 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.029 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Marcus Mariota in place of Zach Mettenberger)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TEN defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20
–
NO 25
Projected margin: NO by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

TEN

Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Out Hamstring
Kendall Wright WR Out Knee
Jason McCourty CB Questionable Groin
Perrish Cox CB Probable Hamstring
Harry Douglas WR Probable Ribs
Marcus Mariota QB Probable Knee
Derrick Morgan LB Probable Ankle

NO

Dannell Ellerbe LB Out Hip
Ramon Humber LB Out Hamstring
Hau'oli Kikaha LB Out Ankle
Luke McCown QB Out Back
Damian Swann CB Out Concussion
Delvin Breaux CB Probable Not Injury Related
Marques Colston WR Probable Not Injury Related
Jahri Evans G Probable Not Injury Related
David Hawthorne LB Probable Hamstring
Keenan Lewis CB Probable Hip
Andrus Peat T Probable Knee
Kevin Williams DT Probable Not Injury Related
Terron Armstead T Probable Knee
Willie Snead WR Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 34
–
NO 28

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:53 TD NO (9:53) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 89-J.Hill for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 0, YAC 10 TEN 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 07:03 FG TEN (7:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – NO 7
  • Q1 03:51 TD NO (3:51) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 10-B.Cooks for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 36, YAC 2 TEN 3 – NO 13
  • Q1 01:12 TD TEN (1:12) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 82-D.Walker for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 20, YAC 39 TEN 9 – NO 14
  • Q2 11:04 TD NO (11:04) 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – NO 20
  • Q2 08:15 TD TEN (8:15) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 82-D.Walker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 0 TEN 16 – NO 21
  • Q3 07:22 FG TEN (7:22) 4-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 20 – NO 21
  • Q4 11:38 TD NO (11:38) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 84-M.Hoomanawanui for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -1, YAC 2 TEN 20 – NO 27
  • Q4 07:11 TD TEN (7:11) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 15-J.Hunter for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 8, YAC 0 TEN 26 – NO 28
  • Q5 09:57 TD TEN (9:57) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 80-A.Fasano for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 0 TEN 34 – NO 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:49) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to NO 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 23-M.Murphy to NO 28 for 11 yards (52-S.Johnson).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:54) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to NO 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 23-M.Murphy to NO 42 for 2 yards (37-C.Riggs). FUMBLES (37-C.Riggs), RECOVERED by TEN-52-S.Johnson at NO 42. 52-S.Johnson to NO 42 for no gain (23-M.Murphy).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 71%

    (7:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:08) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to TEN 22, Center-47-J.Drescher. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 29 for 7 yards (20-B.Dixon).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (5:40) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to NO 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-28-M.Huff.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to TEN 17, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:08) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to TEN 28, Center-47-J.Drescher. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 33 for 5 yards (58-O.Gwacham).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (7:22) 4-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:40) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to NO 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 23-M.Murphy to NO 38 for 8 yards (45-J.Fowler).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:36) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to TEN 11, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 15 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 62%

    (2:00) 4-R.Succop 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 80%

    (1:01) 5-K.Forbath 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-B.Orakpo), Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:19) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NO 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy.