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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 21 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to TEN 28, Center-47-J.Drescher. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 33 for 5 yards (58-O.Gwacham).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP