Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 94

Tennessee Titans 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to NO 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 23-M.Murphy to NO 42 for 2 yards (37-C.Riggs). FUMBLES (37-C.Riggs), RECOVERED by TEN-52-S.Johnson at NO 42. 52-S.Johnson to NO 42 for no gain (23-M.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO -3.67 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.28 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 94, worth -5.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model