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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 28

New Orleans Saints 28 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 5-K.Forbath 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-B.Orakpo), Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.14 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model