Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 28 – New Orleans Saints 28

(:19) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to NO 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.30 EP
57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -0.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model