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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 33

Tennessee Titans 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(7:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.69 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP