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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
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BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2015-11-01 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

SD
49.4%
BAL
50.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • BAL defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.117 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SD 23
–
BAL 24
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

SD

Orlando Franklin G Out Ankle
Manti Te'o LB Out Ankle
Eric Weddle S Out Groin
Tourek Williams LB Out Foot
Denzel Perryman LB Doubtful Biceps
Antonio Gates TE Questionable Knee
Sean Lissemore DT Questionable Hamstring
Craig Mager CB Questionable Hamstring
Melvin Gordon RB Probable Ankle
Chris Watt C Probable Groin

BAL

Breshad Perriman WR Out Knee
Tray Walker CB Out Concussion
Eugene Monroe T Doubtful Shoulder
Kendrick Lewis S Questionable Knee
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Knee
Maxx Williams TE Questionable Knee
Terrence Brooks S Probable Thumb
Steve Smith WR Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 26
–
BAL 29

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:00 FG BAL (10:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. SD 0 – BAL 3
  • Q1 05:49 FG LAC (5:49) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. SD 3 – BAL 3
  • Q1 02:40 FG BAL (2:40) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. SD 3 – BAL 6
  • Q2 10:21 TD LAC (10:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 80-M.Floyd for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-21-L.Webb, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. SD 9 – BAL 6
  • Q2 04:58 TD BAL (4:58) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 80-C.Gillmore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 10 – BAL 12
  • Q2 00:15 TD LAC (:15) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. No. 13 - Keenan Allen (LAC) injured on play. SD 16 – BAL 13
  • Q3 11:16 FG BAL (11:16) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. SD 16 – BAL 16
  • Q3 03:05 TD LAC (3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 80-M.Floyd for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [23-K.Lewis]. SD 22 – BAL 16
  • Q3 00:01 FG BAL (:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. SD 23 – BAL 19
  • Q4 04:37 TD BAL (4:37) 5-J.Flacco up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 23 – BAL 25
  • Q4 02:31 FG LAC (2:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Lambo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. SD 26 – BAL 26
  • Q4 00:03 FG BAL (:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. SD 26 – BAL 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:20) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 46 yards to BAL 39, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-J.Ross to BAL 39 for no gain (48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 13 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 72%

    (10:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 83%

    (5:49) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 96%

    (2:40) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 85%

    (7:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 11-K.Aiken to LAC 20 for 3 yards (24-B.Flowers).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 19 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 72%

    (11:16) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 43%

    (6:24) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 38 yards to BAL 3, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 18 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to LAC 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-J.Jones to LAC 30 for -2 yards (27-A.Jackson).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 78%

    (:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (12:16) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 39 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 62 yards to LAC 3, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-27-A.Jackson.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:42) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 54 yards to BAL 45, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-J.Ross to LAC 38 for 17 yards (47-M.Windt).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 14 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 70%

    (2:31) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Lambo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.