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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(9:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 62 yards to LAC 3, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-27-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.94 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model