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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:40) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.66 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP