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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 27

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.81 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model