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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 24

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(5:49) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.29 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP