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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(12:16) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 39 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.04 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model