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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:20) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 46 yards to BAL 39, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-J.Ross to BAL 39 for no gain (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 85, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 43, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model