4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
GB Away

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2015-11-01 · 20:30 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

GB
59.0%
DEN
41.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.213 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.104 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.224 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 20
–
DEN 18
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

GB

Ty Montgomery WR Questionable Ankle
Nick Perry LB Questionable Shoulder
B.J. Raji DT Questionable Groin
Damarious Randall CB Questionable Ankle
James Starks RB Questionable Hip
Davante Adams WR Probable Ankle
Morgan Burnett S Probable Calf
Nate Palmer LB Probable Chest

DEN

Shane Ray LB Out Knee
Ty Sambrailo T Doubtful Shoulder
Jordan Norwood WR Questionable Hamstring
Omar Bolden S Probable Foot
Owen Daniels TE Probable Shoulder
Ryan Harris T Probable Knee
Evan Mathis G Probable Hamstring
Von Miller LB Probable Not Injury Related
Corey Nelson LB Probable Knee
Emmanuel Sanders WR Probable Shoulder
Aqib Talib CB Probable Ankle
Juwan Thompson RB Probable Hamstring
DeMarcus Ware LB Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 10
–
DEN 29

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:43 TD DEN (4:43) 23-R.Hillman up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 14:10 TD DEN (14:10) (Shotgun) 23-R.Hillman up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – DEN 13
  • Q2 07:51 FG DEN (7:51) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. GB 0 – DEN 17
  • Q2 03:02 TD GB (3:02) (Shotgun) 27-E.Lacy up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DEN 17
  • Q3 09:13 FG GB (9:13) 2-M.Crosby 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 10 – DEN 17
  • Q3 05:32 TD DEN (5:32) (Shotgun) 22-C.Anderson up the middle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – DEN 23
  • Q4 12:28 FG DEN (12:28) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. GB 10 – DEN 27
  • Q4 12:21 SAF DEN (12:21) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 4 for -9 yards (94-D.Ware). FUMBLES (94-D.Ware) [94-D.Ware], touched at GB 3, recovered by GB-82-R.Rodgers at GB 0. 82-R.Rodgers tackled in End Zone, SAFETY (97-M.Jackson). GB 10 – DEN 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:55) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to GB 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 33-M.Hyde to GB 23 for 9 yards (48-S.Barrett; 52-C.Nelson).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 17 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:43) 8-T.Masthay punts 48 yards to DEN 16, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 17 for 1 yard (24-Q.Rollins).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:55) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to DEN 20, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 25 for 5 yards (24-Q.Rollins). PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 25.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:07) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to DEN 22, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 68%

    (7:51) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 50%

    (9:13) 2-M.Crosby 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 17 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:17) 8-T.Masthay punts 42 yards to DEN 20, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (12:28) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:02) 8-T.Masthay punts 47 yards to DEN 21, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 27 for 6 yards (32-C.Banjo).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 13 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 39%

    (1:16) 4-B.Colquitt punts 33 yards to GB 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.