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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 0 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to DEN 22, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP