Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 10 – Denver Broncos 29

(7:02) 8-T.Masthay punts 47 yards to DEN 21, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 27 for 6 yards (32-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.79 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model