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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 32

Denver Broncos 14 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 8-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.36 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model