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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 6

Denver Broncos 24 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.33 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.61 EP
KICK +2.51 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT +0.43 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model