Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to DEN 20, Center-61-B.Goode. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 25 for 5 yards (24-Q.Rollins). PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model