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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 55

Denver Broncos 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to GB 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 33-M.Hyde to GB 23 for 9 yards (48-S.Barrett; 52-C.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.23 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP